VOLTAS LTD - Q3 FY18

WISHING EVERYONE A HAPPY SHIVRATRI.

 MAY LORD SHIVA’S BULL HELP OUR STOCK MARKETS IN 2018. DUE TO OVERWHELMING RESPONSE TO MY BLOG, I HAVE STARTED OFFERING CUSTOMIZED REPORTS/INPUTS ON COMPANIES OF YOUR CHOICE. FOR MORE DETAILS, PLEASE EMAIL TO: suhani.adilabadkar@gmail.com

RBI MONETARY POLICY

BSE Sensex & Nifty were all set & ready on the diving plank even before the Reserve Bank Of India could announce its sixth bi-monthly monetary policy and by the end of it both indices closed lower by 113 points and 0.21% respectively on 7^th February. Things would have been slightly different had the whole of MPC voted along with Dr Michael Debabrata Patra for a 25 basis point rate hike.  Markets would have gone for a double dip after the brutal LTCG budget strike.  And along with the LTCG strike also came the 30 basis point fiscal slippage making it very easy for the central bank to maintain its status quo for a third time in a row and give a sense of predictability to the whole volatile economic scenario.

The Reserve Bank Of India, kept its rates on hold with Repo Rate unchanged at 6% and Reverse Repo Rate at 5.75% under the LAF. The Bank Rate and Marginal Standing Facility remains at 6.25%. As per the RBI, the liquidity continues to be in surplus and is moving towards neutrality. The Central Bank expects inflation to hover between 5.10% -5.60% in the first half of 2018 and settle down around 4.5% in the second half due to low base effect and normal monsoon expectations.  The growth prospects are even more optimistic with GVA moving from 6.60% in 2017-18 to 7.20% in 2018-19 due to higher investment & credit off take, exports gathering further momentum along with capital goods production and recapitalization of PSU banks.

The Monetary Policy was cautious, heavily data driven, predictable and optimistic with respect to both global and domestic growth. With equity markets being roiled every day, crude prices moving both sideways along with uncertain domestic fiscal discipline, maintaining its status quo was the right thing to do. But Rising rates definitely looks certain with double digit credit growth, corporate earnings recovery and rural & infrastructure budget push. May be, early next year we’ll both Raise the rates and the cricket world cup. 

YES BANK LTD - RESEARCH REPORT - Q3 FY18

FEDERAL BANK LTD - RESEARCH REPORT - Q3 FY18

INDUSIND BANK - RESEARCH REPORT - Q3 FY18

INDUSIND BANK LTD - Q3 FY18

INDUSIND BANK LTD reported expected double digit growth with PAT growing at 25% YOY and 6% sequentially. PAT came at Rs. 9363 Mn in the current quarter compared to Rs. 7506 Mn corresponding quarter previous year. Net Interest Income, difference between interest earned and expended also maintained its double digit growth momentum rising 20% YOY at Rs. 18950 Mn against Rs.15780 Mn in Q3 FY17. Net Interest Margin (NIM) came a tad lower than its usual 4% level due to mild pressure on corporate side and was reported at 3.99% in December quarter FY18. Other income which accounts 22% of total income for the bank climbed 17% YOY & constant sequentially in Q3 FY18. Core fee maintained its growth momentum of 22% yearly & 6% sequentially at Rs. 10770 Mn. Gross NPAs and Net NPAs stood at 1.16 % and 0.46% in Q3 FY18 compared to 0.94% & 0.39% respectively same period previous year. GNPA ratio witnessed an uptick of about 22 basis points YOY and 8 basis points sequentially.  NNPA ratio was slower, moving up by 7 & 2 basis points YOY & quarterly respectively. One basis point is equal to 0.01%. Provisions & contingencies continued with their sequential improvement with a 20% decline, whereas on yearly basis, there was a jump of 9%. Provisions & Contingencies were reported at Rs. 2362 Mn against Rs. 2169 Mn same period previous year. With respect to segment revenue, double digit growth was evident in Retail, other banking business & treasury whereas Corporate slowed down to 2% YOY. Retail outpaced Corporate growing at 23% where as Other banking business was highest at 67% growth rate YOY. Treasury income grew at 11% YOY and declined 16% QOQ due to hardening of yields in the December quarter. CASA ratio stood at 42.90% rising 580 basis points YOY supported by savings accounts which jumped 1.7 times YOY. The Bank aims to achieve CASA ratio of about 45% by 2020. In absolute terms CASA rose 42% YOY at Rs. 626160 Mn against Rs. 441620 Mn corresponding period previous year. Advances grew at a higher rate of 25% & deposits at 23% YOY. The corporate loan book grew faster than retail in the current quarter, though retail income tends to be higher due to differential of about 5% between retail and corporate yields. IndusInd Bank is also witnessing strong traction through its digital initiatives in savings accounts, personal loans, credit cards & mobile banking business.

 IndusInd Bank has announced its merger with Bharat Financial on 14^th October 2017. The bank has received approval from Competition Commission and is awaiting RBI nod. With double digit profitability growth, stable CASA, provisions reined in, credit growth above industry average, strong core fee, lower slippages & credit costs and Bharat Financial Inclusion in its stable, IndusInd Bank has fortified its position in private sector banking. Thus, we recommend BUY for the stock for medium and long term investment with target price of Rs.1925.