HERO MOTOCORP LTD - Q2 FY18

HERO MOTOCORP Ltd reported stable second quarter FY18 with double digit sequential growth. Revenue or Income From Operations witnessed mild decline of 1% YOY and stood at Rs. 83620 Mn compared to Rs. 84487 Mn in September quarter FY17. Profit After Tax grew 1% YOY and 11% sequentially at Rs. 10105 Mn against Rs. 10042 Mn same period previous year. EBDITA was up 3% YOY at Rs. 15733 Mn against Rs. 15212 Mn corresponding quarter previous year. On sequential basis, growth was stronger at 10% in the current September quarter. After a sluggish Q3 & Q4 FY17, FY18 has started on a strong note for HERO MOTOCORP and the company has maintained its double digit June growth momentum though on lower pace. Operating Expenditure declined 2% YOY from Rs. 70799 Mn in Q2 FY17 to Rs. 69063 Mn in the current September quarter. On quarterly basis, expenditure was further curtailed by 6% in Q2 FY18. As a result, both EBDITA & Net Profit Margins improved yearly & sequentially and were reported at 18.81% & 12.08% respectively in Q2 FY18. YOY jump was 81 & 20 basis points whereas on sequential basis, expansion was 224 & 147 basis points for EBDITA & Net Profit Margins respectively in the September quarter FY18. One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. Net Profit Margins were slightly restrained as taxation & depreciation expenditure jumped 7% & 14% YOY. The effective tax rate was higher due to phasing out of investment allowance and reduction in allowable deduction of R&D expenditure. Interest expense was almost constant on yearly terms and was reported at Rs. 15.60 Mn in Q2 FY18. Other income was reported at Rs. 1176 Mn against Rs. 1524 Mn in Q2 FY17.

Hero MotoCorp Ltd. is the world's largest manufacturer of two - wheelers, based in India. The company achieved this feat in  2001 and still retains this position in terms of unit volume sales in a calendar year. The company has crossed 75 million units in cumulative sales in July-September period and also clocked 2 million unit sales in a quarter which included more than 7 lakh sales in the month of September. YOY, Hero Motocorp grew 11% in unit sales and 9% sequentially in September quarter. Moving into the next quarter, October unit sales fell short by about 5% YOY, whereas November sales have grown 26% YOY. The company has witnessed strong rebound aided by the festive season and supported by strong urban and rural demand and is expected to continue this momentum in the next quarter. We recommend BUY for the stock for medium & long term investment with a target price of Rs. 4320.

Disclaimer                                       

                                      

The information and opinions contained in the research reports have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. The research report does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Clients should consider whether any advice or recommendation in this research is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice, including but not limited to tax advice. The reports do not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, risk profile or needs of individual clients. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. This report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment.

The price and value of investments referred to in this research and the income from them may fluctuate. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur.

Research data and reports published/ emailed/ text messaged via Short Messaging Services, Online Messengers, WhatsApp etc/transmitted through mobile application/s, including but not limited to FLIP™, Video Widget, telephony networks, print or electronic media and or those made available/uploaded on social networking sites (e.g. Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn etc) is for informational purposes only. The reports are provided for assistance and are not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Though disseminated to clients simultaneously, not all clients may receive the reports at the same time. We will not treat recipients as clients by virtue of their receiving this report.

The reports include projections, forecasts and other predictive statements which represent our assumptions and expectations in the light of currently available information. These projections and forecasts are based on industry trends, circumstances and factors which involve risks, variables and uncertainties. The actual performance of the companies represented in the report may vary from those projected.

The opinions expressed in the reports are subject to change but we have no obligation to tell our clients when our opinions or recommendations change. The reports are non-inclusive and do not consider all the information that the recipients may consider material to investments.

We shall not be in any way responsible for any indirect, special or consequential damages that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in the reports nor do they take guarantee or assume liability for any omissions of the information contained therein. Information contained therein cannot be the basis for any claim, demand or cause of action. These data, reports and information do not constitute scientific publication and do not carry any evidentiary value whatsoever.

The user should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of investment and also read the Risk Disclosure Documents for Capital Markets and Derivative Segments as prescribed by Securities and Exchange Board of India before investing in the Indian Markets. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decision based on their own investment objectives, goals and financial position and based on their own analysis. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements, if any, are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice.

This report may provide the addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to websites. Except to the extent to which the report refers to material we take no responsibility whatsoever for the contents therein. Such addresses or hyperlinks are provided solely for your convenience and information and the content of the linked site does not in any way form part of this report. Accessing such website or following such link through this report shall be at your own risk.

The author of this Research Report accepts no liability and will not in any way be responsible for the contents of this report or for any losses, costs, expenses, charges, including notional losses/lost opportunities incurred by a recipient as a result of acting or non-acting on any information/material contained in the report. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities or an attempt to influence the opinion or behavior of investors or recipients or provide any investment/tax advice. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.

BAJAJ AUTO LTD - Q2 FY18

BAJAJ AUTO LTD reported strong September quarter with phenomenal sequential growth but mild decline in yearly numbers. Revenue or Income From Operations rose 2% YOY and stood at Rs. 65664 Mn compared to Rs. 64323 Mn in the current September quarter FY18. Profit After Tax was lower by 1% YOY at Rs. 11936 Mn against Rs. 12007 Mn corresponding quarter previous year. EBDITA declined 3% YOY at Rs. 15947 Mn against Rs. 16371 Mn in the same period previous year as operating costs jumped 3% and other income declined 13% YOY in the current Q2 FY18. Though Bajaj Auto yearly September numbers look somber, quarterly performance is strong and zestful with double digit growth in every parameter. Revenue growth was reported with 12% rise QOQ and EBDITA growing 1.2 times vis-a vis the previous June quarter. Net Profit galloped 43% sequentially even as operating costs climbed 7% QOQ. Operating costs stood at Rs. 52690 Mn in the current Q2 FY18 against Rs. 51379 Mn same period previous year. As a result margins were stronger sequentially witnessing de-growth on yearly basis. EBDITA Margin was reported at 24.28% in the current quarter vis-à-vis 25.45% same period previous year. Controlled depreciation & taxation expenditure & negligent interest costs have lead to strong Net Profit Margins in September quarter at 18.18% against 18.67% corresponding quarter previous year. On sequential basis EBDITA & Net Profit Margin expanded 274 & 388 basis points in the current quarter. One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.  Bajaj Auto has one of the best operating margins in the auto industry.

BAJAJ AUTO LTD is world’s fourth largest two wheeler & three wheeler manufacturer in the world. The company manufactures motorcycles & commercial vehicles both for domestic and international markets. On the volume front motorcycles grew 2% and commercial vehicles jumped 14% YOY. Total volume growth was about 4% on yearly basis with motorcycles contributing 86% & commercial vehicles 14% YOY. Motorcycle segment performed better with respect to exports vis-à-vis domestic market growing 1% & 5% respectively. Commercial Vehicles reported highest ever quarterly sale in domestic market with 84938 units in Q2 FY18. Commercial Vehicles grew 14% in the domestic market and 13% in international market. Total volumes or units for the current quarter stood at 918721 and 152789 units for motorcycles & Commercial Vehicles respectively. The October and November volume data has also been encouraging with YOY growth of 7% & 21% respectively. During the quarter, BAJAJ Auto witnessed highest ever monthly sale of 428752 units which includes highest ever sale of pulsars of 112075 units in September 2017.

BAJAJ Auto signifies technologically superior product profile catering to both urban & rural markets with its popular brands Pulsar, Dominar, Avenger, Discover, Platina & CT 100. The company has consolidated its position internationally and improved its market share for motorcycles in domestic market from 25% to 32% sequentially. We recommend BUY for the stock with target price of Rs. 3820 for medium & long term.

Disclaimer                                       

                                      

The information and opinions contained in the research reports have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. The research report does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Clients should consider whether any advice or recommendation in this research is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice, including but not limited to tax advice. The reports do not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, risk profile or needs of individual clients. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. This report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment.

The price and value of investments referred to in this research and the income from them may fluctuate. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur.

Research data and reports published/ emailed/ text messaged via Short Messaging Services, Online Messengers, WhatsApp etc/transmitted through mobile application/s, including but not limited to FLIP™, Video Widget, telephony networks, print or electronic media and or those made available/uploaded on social networking sites (e.g. Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn etc) is for informational purposes only. The reports are provided for assistance and are not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Though disseminated to clients simultaneously, not all clients may receive the reports at the same time. We will not treat recipients as clients by virtue of their receiving this report.

The reports include projections, forecasts and other predictive statements which represent our assumptions and expectations in the light of currently available information. These projections and forecasts are based on industry trends, circumstances and factors which involve risks, variables and uncertainties. The actual performance of the companies represented in the report may vary from those projected.

The opinions expressed in the reports are subject to change but we have no obligation to tell our clients when our opinions or recommendations change. The reports are non-inclusive and do not consider all the information that the recipients may consider material to investments.

We shall not be in any way responsible for any indirect, special or consequential damages that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in the reports nor do they take guarantee or assume liability for any omissions of the information contained therein. Information contained therein cannot be the basis for any claim, demand or cause of action. These data, reports and information do not constitute scientific publication and do not carry any evidentiary value whatsoever.

The user should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of investment and also read the Risk Disclosure Documents for Capital Markets and Derivative Segments as prescribed by Securities and Exchange Board of India before investing in the Indian Markets. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decision based on their own investment objectives, goals and financial position and based on their own analysis. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements, if any, are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice.

This report may provide the addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to websites. Except to the extent to which the report refers to material we take no responsibility whatsoever for the contents therein. Such addresses or hyperlinks are provided solely for your convenience and information and the content of the linked site does not in any way form part of this report. Accessing such website or following such link through this report shall be at your own risk.

The author of this Research Report accepts no liability and will not in any way be responsible for the contents of this report or for any losses, costs, expenses, charges, including notional losses/lost opportunities incurred by a recipient as a result of acting or non-acting on any information/material contained in the report. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities or an attempt to influence the opinion or behavior of investors or recipients or provide any investment/tax advice. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.

BATA INDIA LTD- Q2 FY18

CONCOR LTD -Q2 FY18

Container Corporation Of India Ltd (CONCOR) reported robust yearly growth in September quarter FY18. Revenue jumped 5% YOY at Rs. 14302 Mn compared to Rs. 13603 Mn in the corresponding September quarter previous year.  PAT or Net Profit grew 41% YOY at Rs. 2229 Mn against Rs. 1578 Mn same period previous year. EBDITA was reported at Rs. 3774 Mn compared to Rs. 3036 Mn growing 24% YOY. Other Income exhibited positive growth both yearly and QOQ rising 25% & 2% respectively in the current Q2 FY18 quarter. Other Income was reported at Rs. 954 Mn against Rs. 763 Mn in corresponding quarter previous year. Sequential growth has been lower with Revenue, EBDITA & PAT declining by 2%, 10% & 8% respectively in the current quarter. Operating Expenditure grew 1% YOY and 2% sequentially in the current September quarter. Operating expenditure stood at Rs. 11481 Mn in Q2 FY18 compared to Rs. 11330 Mn in Q2 FY17. EBDITA margin expanded 407 basis points YOY and declined 246 basis points sequentially in the current September quarter. EBDITA Margin was reported at 26.39% against 22.32% corresponding quarter previous year. Taxation expenditure de-growth was about 3% YOY at Rs. 576 Mn in the current September quarter against Rs. 596 Mn same period previous year. Sequentially Taxation witnessed decline of 14%.  Tax rate was lower on account of policy change and 80IA benefit received by the company last year. Net Profit Margin was reported at 15.60% expanding 399 basis points YOY and fell 112 basis points sequentially in the current September quarter FY18. CONCOR is an undisputed market leader having 73% market share in containerized traffic and the largest network of 72 ICDs/CFSs in India. In addition to providing inland transport by rail for containers, it has also expanded to cover management of ports, air cargo complexes and establishing cold-chain. The company developed multimodal logistics support for India's International and Domestic containerization and trade.

CONCOR’S core business is divided into two main segments, Exim which contributes 80% of total revenues and domestic the rest. Exim revenues were reported at Rs. 11415 Mn against Rs. 11137 Mn same period previous year rising 2% YOY. Domestic revenues on the other hand jumped 17% YOY at Rs. 2887 Mn compared to Rs. 2466 Mn in Q2 FY17. Sequential performance was hampered in both segments particularly domestically due to GST. The company is moving forward with its capex plans which is around Rs. 10000 Mn in the current year.  The company is planning to commission seven logistics parks in the next two quarters.  The company plans three MMLPs at Nagpur, Mihan, Raipur and Paradip in Q3 FY18. The remaining four MMLPs at Balli in Goa, Baroda, Varnama in Andhra Pradesh Krishnapatnam port and New Mangalore Port in Kanataka in Q4 FY18 . The company has witnessed stable growth in September quarter and is expected to grow strongly in the long run as only 20% of domestic trade is containerized which gives vast scope of opportunities for companies like CONCOR. We recommend BUY for the stock for medium & long term investment with a target price of Rs. 1520.

Disclaimer                                       

                                      

The information and opinions contained in the research reports have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. The research report does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Clients should consider whether any advice or recommendation in this research is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice, including but not limited to tax advice. The reports do not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, risk profile or needs of individual clients. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. This report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment.

The price and value of investments referred to in this research and the income from them may fluctuate. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur.

Research data and reports published/ emailed/ text messaged via Short Messaging Services, Online Messengers, WhatsApp etc/transmitted through mobile application/s, including but not limited to FLIP™, Video Widget, telephony networks, print or electronic media and or those made available/uploaded on social networking sites (e.g. Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn etc) is for informational purposes only. The reports are provided for assistance and are not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Though disseminated to clients simultaneously, not all clients may receive the reports at the same time. We will not treat recipients as clients by virtue of their receiving this report.

The reports include projections, forecasts and other predictive statements which represent our assumptions and expectations in the light of currently available information. These projections and forecasts are based on industry trends, circumstances and factors which involve risks, variables and uncertainties. The actual performance of the companies represented in the report may vary from those projected.

The opinions expressed in the reports are subject to change but we have no obligation to tell our clients when our opinions or recommendations change. The reports are non-inclusive and do not consider all the information that the recipients may consider material to investments.

We shall not be in any way responsible for any indirect, special or consequential damages that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in the reports nor do they take guarantee or assume liability for any omissions of the information contained therein. Information contained therein cannot be the basis for any claim, demand or cause of action. These data, reports and information do not constitute scientific publication and do not carry any evidentiary value whatsoever.

The user should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of investment and also read the Risk Disclosure Documents for Capital Markets and Derivative Segments as prescribed by Securities and Exchange Board of India before investing in the Indian Markets. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decision based on their own investment objectives, goals and financial position and based on their own analysis. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements, if any, are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice.

This report may provide the addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to websites. Except to the extent to which the report refers to material we take no responsibility whatsoever for the contents therein. Such addresses or hyperlinks are provided solely for your convenience and information and the content of the linked site does not in any way form part of this report. Accessing such website or following such link through this report shall be at your own risk.

The author of this Research Report accepts no liability and will not in any way be responsible for the contents of this report or for any losses, costs, expenses, charges, including notional losses/lost opportunities incurred by a recipient as a result of acting or non-acting on any information/material contained in the report. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities or an attempt to influence the opinion or behavior of investors or recipients or provide any investment/tax advice. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.

RBI MONETARY POLICY: NEITHER SHAKEN NOR STIRRED

Mr Mark Carney, Governor, Bank Of England would definitely be envious of our RBI Chief. With slowest growth among G7 members, looming brexit divorce and 3% inflation, Bank Of England is in a delirious position. As a result, rates were raised 0.25 basis points by Bank Of England in its recent monetary policy. It’s former spouse, European Central Bank has reduced its monthly purchases to 30 billion euros and the US FED is expected to raise rates as a goodbye Christmas gift by Madame Yellen in her last December policy. Global economy is limping back to growth still backed by stimulus which is being withdrawn leisurely at the behest of central bank chiefs hoping to bring about some sensibility to the current volatile political & economic scenario.  Indian Central Bank on the other hand is in a relatively propitious situation with rising GDP & inflation still in control.

REFORM & RECAP FOR PSU BANKS

 It may sound extremely clichéd, but our monetary policy was on expected lines. Though there were no surprises with respect to policy rates, PSU banks dived even when everybody else had their protective gear on. They were definitely not expecting relative grading of their capitalization woes and hoped equal treatment irrespective of their fiscal temperament and indolent attitude towards asset quality mess. RBI gave a stern message underlining performance based recapitalization of PSU banks highlighting that the consecutive boom & bust syndrome through previous government bailouts was a thing of the past.  This dose of stick & carrot is definitely required for the Indian PSU Banks largely responsible for garnering the second highest Non Performing Assets in the world after Italy.

STATUS QUO MAINTAINED

As our monetary policy was being elucidated by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), the rupee weakened 13 paise, stock markets dived 200 points and the bonds gave a measured reaction treating it as a non event. Repo rate at 6%, Reverse Repo rate at 5.75%, Marginal Standing Facility and Bank Rate at 6.25% with a neutral stance was decided by the MPC in the ratio of 5:1. Mr Dholakia was the lone member favoring a rate cut. Though RBI was largely expected to maintain its status quo with October inflation at 3.58%, GDP growth at 6.3% and credit growth up 8.6% v/s 7.5% YOY justified the stagnant policy rates. In addition to that, rising crude prices and fear of fiscal slippages through state farm loan waivers, rollback of excise duty & VAT of petroleum products and lesser government revenue due to lower GST rates made it mandatory for the central bank to remain frugal.

  

THE TINKERING

Boosting digitalization, RBI rationalized Merchant Discount Rates (MDR) on debit cards by categorizing merchants on the basis of turnover. Overseas branches and subsidiaries of Indian banks are now allowed by the RBI to refinance External Commercial Borrowings (ECBs) of AAA rated public sector and private sector companies reducing their borrowing costs and enhancing overseas credit market. Lastly, the Bank acknowledged government effort with respect to improvement in Ease of Doing Business and maintained growth forecast at 6.7% for 2017-18.

PAUSE BEFORE STEPPING ON THE GAS

Analysts are expecting the Indian Central Bank to be on an extended pause the whole of 2018 as it expects inflation to follow an upward trajectory fuelled by oil prices and probable fiscal slippages. But, what if the GDP growth is maintained around 6% and inflation shoots up beyond 5% as expected in December. In such a scenario, a rate hike is not over-ruled and we might just end up in the elite club of FED & Bank Of England for valid reasons by February 2018. If that happens India may be in a ‘GOLDILOCKS’ situation with rising asset prices, lower inflation and rising GDP.  Really! Then what about the crude prices which have risen about 40% this year. Well, they are expected to remain within $62- $65 for 2018 as predicted by some optimistic financial pundits. That suits us fine, if GDP maintains its upward trajectory in the coming quarters, GOLDILOCKS might or might not be a certainty, but definitely an envious position to be in.

LAURUS LABS LTD - Q2 FY18

Laurus Labs Ltd posted stable yearly numbers with robust quarterly performance for the second quarter FY18. Consolidated Revenue was reported at Rs. 5386 Mn in the current quarter against Rs. 5254 Mn rising 3% YOY corresponding period previous year with sequential growth of 10%. Consolidated PAT was reported with 25% sequential growth though on yearly basis, numbers were almost stagnant at Rs. 488 Mn in the current September quarter. EBDITA was stable with 3% growth YOY at Rs. 1192 Mn against Rs. 1162 Mn corresponding quarter previous year. Sequentially EBDITA witnessed 15% rise in the current September quarter. Profit Before Tax jumped 6% yearly and 26% QOQ at Rs. 696 Mn in Q2 FY18. Other Income was reported at Rs. 66 Mn compared to Rs. 80 Mn same period previous year. Operating expenditure rose mildly by 2% YOY and was reported at Rs. 4260 Mn against Rs. 4172 Mn same period previous year. In the first half year FY18, the company has invested about 5% of its revenues about Rs. 493 Mn in research & development. EBDITA Margin was reported at 22.13% in Q2 FY18 compared to 22.11% corresponding quarter previous year. Sequential jump was 95 basis points. Interest expenses were lower by 21% YOY at Rs. 195 Mn against Rs. 247 Mn in Q2 FY17. Depreciation & Taxation on the other hand soared 18% & 22% YOY respectively in the current quarter. Net effect, decline in Net Interest Margin YOY by 14 basis points YOY whereas sequential expansion was 113 basis points. One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. Net Interest Margin was reported at 9.05% against 9.19% same period previous year and 7.92% in the previous June quarter FY18.

Laurus Labs Ltd is a leading pharmaceutical company manufacturing Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) for anti-retroviral (ARV), Hepatitis C, oncology and other therapeutic areas. The company has filed 211 patent applications and 46 patents as on 30^th September 2017. The company has leveraged its API cost advantage for forward integration into Generic FDF segment. As on date the company has filed 8 ANDAs and completed 11 validations for formulations. Laurus Labs has also developed its synthesis business through ASPEN & other global innovators. Laurus Labs has announced on 30^th November 2017, approval for Tenofovir Disoproxil Fumarate Tablets 300 mg equivalent to VIREAD tablets 300 mg of Gilead Science Ltd for treatment of HIV – 1 infection in adults and children above 2 years.

 We recommend BUY for the stock with target price of Rs. 695 for medium & long term.

The information and opinions contained in the research reports have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. The research report does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Clients should consider whether any advice or recommendation in this research is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice, including but not limited to tax advice. The reports do not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, risk profile or needs of individual clients. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. This report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment.

The price and value of investments referred to in this research and the income from them may fluctuate. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur.

Research data and reports published/ emailed/ text messaged via Short Messaging Services, Online Messengers, WhatsApp etc/transmitted through mobile application/s, including but not limited to FLIP™, Video Widget, telephony networks, print or electronic media and or those made available/uploaded on social networking sites (e.g. Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn etc) is for informational purposes only. The reports are provided for assistance and are not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Though disseminated to clients simultaneously, not all clients may receive the reports at the same time. We will not treat recipients as clients by virtue of their receiving this report.

The reports include projections, forecasts and other predictive statements which represent our assumptions and expectations in the light of currently available information. These projections and forecasts are based on industry trends, circumstances and factors which involve risks, variables and uncertainties. The actual performance of the companies represented in the report may vary from those projected.

The opinions expressed in the reports are subject to change but we have no obligation to tell our clients when our opinions or recommendations change. The reports are non-inclusive and do not consider all the information that the recipients may consider material to investments.

We shall not be in any way responsible for any indirect, special or consequential damages that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in the reports nor do they take guarantee or assume liability for any omissions of the information contained therein. Information contained therein cannot be the basis for any claim, demand or cause of action. These data, reports and information do not constitute scientific publication and do not carry any evidentiary value whatsoever.

The user should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of investment and also read the Risk Disclosure Documents for Capital Markets and Derivative Segments as prescribed by Securities and Exchange Board of India before investing in the Indian Markets. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decision based on their own investment objectives, goals and financial position and based on their own analysis. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements, if any, are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice.

This report may provide the addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to websites. Except to the extent to which the report refers to material we take no responsibility whatsoever for the contents therein. Such addresses or hyperlinks are provided solely for your convenience and information and the content of the linked site does not in any way form part of this report. Accessing such website or following such link through this report shall be at your own risk.

The author of this Research Report accepts no liability and will not in any way be responsible for the contents of this report or for any losses, costs, expenses, charges, including notional losses/lost opportunities incurred by a recipient as a result of acting or non-acting on any information/material contained in the report. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities or an attempt to influence the opinion or behavior of investors or recipients or provide any investment/tax advice. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.

CEAT LTD - RESEARCH REPORT - Q2 FY18

BHARAT FORGE LTD – Q2 FY18

Bharat Forge Ltd reported spectacular growth for the second quarter FY18. All parameters reported positive momentum with double digit growth in the current quarter. Revenue or Income From Operations rose 34% YOY at Rs. 12580 Mn in the current quarter against Rs. 9359 Mn same period previous year. Export Revenue grew 56% YOY at Rs. 7039 Mn against Rs. 4515 Mn whereas Domestic revenue jumped 26% and stood at Rs. 5541 Mn compared to Rs. 4394 Mn corresponding quarter previous year. EBDITA jumped at even higher rate of 46% from Rs. 2786 Mn to Rs. 4061 Mn in the current September quarter driven by product mix and operational efficiency. Profit After Tax galloped 61% YOY at Rs. 2037 Mn against Rs. 1269 Mn corresponding quarter previous year. Operating Expenditure jumped 29% YOY from Rs. 6882 Mn in Q2 FY17 to Rs. 8886 Mn in the current September quarter. On quarterly basis, operating expenditure declined 4% leading to robust operating margins. EBDITA margin expanded 372 basis points QOQ and 251 basis points yearly at 32.28% in the current quarter. Net Profit Margin too followed suit, rising 227 basis points sequentially and 264 basis points YOY. Net Profit Margin was reported at 16.19% against 13.56% same period previous quarter. One basis point is equal to 0.01%. Though operating expenditure was reined in, Depreciation, finance/interest costs & taxation grew 8%, 14%, 70% respectively in Q2 FY18. Other Income supported the bottom-line rising 18% YOY & 41% on quarterly basis in the current quarter. Other Income was reported at Rs. 366 Mn compared to Rs. 309 Mn corresponding quarter previous year.

Bharat Forge Limited (BFL), part of Kalyani Group is the world's largest forging company with transcontinental presence across ten manufacturing locations, serving automotive, power, oil and gas, construction & mining, rail, marine and aerospace. Bharat Forge manufactures a wide range of high performance, critical & safety components for the automotive & non-automotive sector.  It is India's largest manufacturer and exporter of automotive components and leading chassis component manufacturer in the world. Broadly, the revenue basket is divided into auto & industrials which grew 24% & 80% respectively YOY. Revenue can be further bifurcated into three streams, commercial vehicles, passenger vehicles & industrials. Commercial vehicles, Industrials & Passenger vehicles stood at Rs. 5495 Mn, Rs. 5354 Mn and Rs. 1044 Mn with yearly growth 29%, 79% & 2% respectively in Q2 FY18. Industrial segment contributed 45% to total revenue with 154% rise in international revenues whereas domestic growth was 19% in the current quarter.  Commercial vehicles contributed 45% growing domestically & internationally by 37% & 24% respectively. Passenger vehicles reported negative growth of 21% internationally whereas domestic growth was robust at 41% YOY.  The company has secured new orders worth $ 40 Mn annually across geographies and applications in the first half of FY18. Auto revenues are expected to rise further as auto industry is robust both in India and globally. On the other hand, industrials are supported by improved macro fundamentals globally. 

The company has also announced setting up of a Greenfield facility in Andhra Pradesh for light-weighting technology fully integrated facility to manufacture components, sub systems of light-weight material such as aluminium, magnesium and carbon fiber, for customers across the world including the EV space. The company will invest Rs. 2000 Mn in the first phase and the facility is expected to start production within 2 years. We recommend BUY for the stock for medium & long term investment with target price of Rs. 950. 

Disclaimer                                       

                                      

The information and opinions contained in the research reports have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. The research report does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Clients should consider whether any advice or recommendation in this research is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice, including but not limited to tax advice. The reports do not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, risk profile or needs of individual clients. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. This report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment.

The price and value of investments referred to in this research and the income from them may fluctuate. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur.

Research data and reports published/ emailed/ text messaged via Short Messaging Services, Online Messengers, WhatsApp etc/transmitted through mobile application/s, including but not limited to FLIP™, Video Widget, telephony networks, print or electronic media and or those made available/uploaded on social networking sites (e.g. Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn etc) is for informational purposes only. The reports are provided for assistance and are not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Though disseminated to clients simultaneously, not all clients may receive the reports at the same time. We will not treat recipients as clients by virtue of their receiving this report.

The reports include projections, forecasts and other predictive statements which represent our assumptions and expectations in the light of currently available information. These projections and forecasts are based on industry trends, circumstances and factors which involve risks, variables and uncertainties. The actual performance of the companies represented in the report may vary from those projected.

The opinions expressed in the reports are subject to change but we have no obligation to tell our clients when our opinions or recommendations change. The reports are non-inclusive and do not consider all the information that the recipients may consider material to investments.

We shall not be in any way responsible for any indirect, special or consequential damages that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in the reports nor do they take guarantee or assume liability for any omissions of the information contained therein. Information contained therein cannot be the basis for any claim, demand or cause of action. These data, reports and information do not constitute scientific publication and do not carry any evidentiary value whatsoever.

The user should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of investment and also read the Risk Disclosure Documents for Capital Markets and Derivative Segments as prescribed by Securities and Exchange Board of India before investing in the Indian Markets. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decision based on their own investment objectives, goals and financial position and based on their own analysis. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements, if any, are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice.

This report may provide the addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to websites. Except to the extent to which the report refers to material we take no responsibility whatsoever for the contents therein. Such addresses or hyperlinks are provided solely for your convenience and information and the content of the linked site does not in any way form part of this report. Accessing such website or following such link through this report shall be at your own risk.

The author of this Research Report accepts no liability and will not in any way be responsible for the contents of this report or for any losses, costs, expenses, charges, including notional losses/lost opportunities incurred by a recipient as a result of acting or non-acting on any information/material contained in the report. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities or an attempt to influence the opinion or behavior of investors or recipients or provide any investment/tax advice. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.

                                                      CEAT LTD – Q2 FY18

CEAT Ltd reported robust sequential growth in September quarter FY18. After a sluggish June quarter, consolidated PAT & EBDITA rebounded to normal levels on the back of lower raw material prices and controlled expenditure. PAT stood at Rs. 729 Mn against Rs. 1065 Mn corresponding period previous year and Rs. 14 Mn previous June quarter. EBDITA was reported at Rs. 1811 Mn in the current quarter against Rs. 1890 Mn in Q2 FY17 and Rs. 650 Mn in previous June quarter. Revenue was seen at Rs. 15230 Mn falling 5% YOY, compared to Rs. 15966 Mn same quarter previous year. On sequential basis, revenue declined 6% as GST impacted in the first two months of the quarter. Other Income jumped 1.8 times and was reported at Rs. 65 Mn against Rs. 37 Mn same quarter previous year. Operating expenditure declined 4% yearly and 14% sequentially with lower raw material cost & controlled expenses especially discretionary expenditure. Other expenses have fallen by 8.6% sequentially and 2.6% on yearly basis. EBDITA Margin improved mildly by 5 basis points YOY at 11.89% whereas Net Profit Margin declined 187 basis points at 4.79% in the current September quarter. On sequential basis margins were better jumping 790 & 471 basis points for EBDITA & Net Profit Margin respectively in Q2 FY18.

CEAT Ltd with market cap of Rs. 69325 Mn is a major player in two wheeler & passenger cars with market share of about 27%. Both Nagpur & Halol plants have been commissioned and ramp-up is underway. Nagpur plant is at 50% of its peak capacity and is 120 tons per day plant.  Halol plant is at about 70% from its peak capacity. Chennai expansion is underway which is solely dedicated to passenger cars where the company has currently around 10% market share. Ceat’s capex plans involve an outflow of about Rs. 16000 Mn – Rs. 18000 Mn between FY17-FY19.

With demonetization & GST impact discarded and lower rubber prices, CEAT Ltd is expected to improve its bottom-line in the coming quarters and report healthy growth. We recommend BUY for the stock for medium & long term investment with target price of Rs. 2200.

Disclaimer                                       

                                      

The information and opinions contained in the research reports have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. The research report does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Clients should consider whether any advice or recommendation in this research is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice, including but not limited to tax advice. The reports do not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, risk profile or needs of individual clients. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. This report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment.

The price and value of investments referred to in this research and the income from them may fluctuate. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur.

Research data and reports published/ emailed/ text messaged via Short Messaging Services, Online Messengers, WhatsApp etc/transmitted through mobile application/s, including but not limited to FLIP™, Video Widget, telephony networks, print or electronic media and or those made available/uploaded on social networking sites (e.g. Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn etc) is for informational purposes only. The reports are provided for assistance and are not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Though disseminated to clients simultaneously, not all clients may receive the reports at the same time. We will not treat recipients as clients by virtue of their receiving this report.

The reports include projections, forecasts and other predictive statements which represent our assumptions and expectations in the light of currently available information. These projections and forecasts are based on industry trends, circumstances and factors which involve risks, variables and uncertainties. The actual performance of the companies represented in the report may vary from those projected.

The opinions expressed in the reports are subject to change but we have no obligation to tell our clients when our opinions or recommendations change. The reports are non-inclusive and do not consider all the information that the recipients may consider material to investments.

We shall not be in any way responsible for any indirect, special or consequential damages that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in the reports nor do they take guarantee or assume liability for any omissions of the information contained therein. Information contained therein cannot be the basis for any claim, demand or cause of action. These data, reports and information do not constitute scientific publication and do not carry any evidentiary value whatsoever.

The user should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of investment and also read the Risk Disclosure Documents for Capital Markets and Derivative Segments as prescribed by Securities and Exchange Board of India before investing in the Indian Markets. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decision based on their own investment objectives, goals and financial position and based on their own analysis. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements, if any, are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice.

This report may provide the addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to websites. Except to the extent to which the report refers to material we take no responsibility whatsoever for the contents therein. Such addresses or hyperlinks are provided solely for your convenience and information and the content of the linked site does not in any way form part of this report. Accessing such website or following such link through this report shall be at your own risk.

The author of this Research Report accepts no liability and will not in any way be responsible for the contents of this report or for any losses, costs, expenses, charges, including notional losses/lost opportunities incurred by a recipient as a result of acting or non-acting on any information/material contained in the report. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities or an attempt to influence the opinion or behavior of investors or recipients or provide any investment/tax advice. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.

VOLTAS LTD - RESEARCH REPORT - Q2 FY18